Short answer: a quarter (25%) of employers that recruited last year had problems with counteroffers or dropouts after an offer was accepted (CIPD, 2026). In Horsham, where local jobs pay a median 11.6% less than residents earn, that risk is sharper (West Sussex County Council, ASHE 2023).
The gap between yes and day one
An accepted offer is not a hire. Between the handshake and the first morning there are usually weeks of notice. A lot can happen in those weeks. The candidate’s boss can make a better offer. Another interview can come good. Or they can simply get cold feet.
The CIPD’s Resourcing and talent planning report 2026 surveyed 1,014 HR and people professionals. A quarter (25%) reported challenges with counteroffers or dropouts after offer acceptance.
The same survey two years earlier found that 27% of employers had a new starter fail to turn up on day one. 41% had a new employee resign within their first 12 weeks (CIPD, 2024).
Better than 2024, but far from solved
The 2026 report found that reneging on offers, day-one no-shows and 12-week resignations had all fallen since 2024. The CIPD links this to a tighter labour market and more focus on faster hiring and candidate experience.
Employers have also cooled on counteroffers as a tactic. 20% used them to tackle recruitment difficulties in 2026, down from 28% in 2024. That is still one employer in five.
Many businesses have no idea how often this hits them. Only about three in ten organisations measure the retention of new hires within their first year (CIPD, 2026).
Why Horsham employers are more exposed
Horsham is a district people leave to work. At the 2021 Census, more working residents commuted out than came in.
| Horsham district, Census 2021 | Number of workers |
|---|---|
| Residents in work | 72,155 |
| Commuting out of the district | 15,686 |
| Commuting into the district | 12,133 |
| Net outflow | 3,553 |
Crawley was the biggest destination for those leaving (3,512 people) and the biggest source of those coming in (2,324).
Pay follows the same pattern. In 2023, full-time jobs based in Horsham district paid a median £4,320 (11.6%) less than Horsham residents earned. That was the widest gap in West Sussex (West Sussex County Council, ASHE 2023).
In our view, those two facts together explain a lot. A Horsham business hiring a resident who works outside the district may be asking them to swap pay for a shorter commute. That is exactly when a counteroffer from their current employer lands best.
A tighter pool raises the stakes
The KPMG and REC Report on Jobs, published on 10 October, found permanent candidate supply grew at its weakest rate since September 2023. The South of England was the only region where permanent placements fell in September.
Competition was already rising. 52% of employers in the CIPD survey said competition for well-qualified talent had increased over the past year (CIPD, 2026). When good people get scarcer, employers fight harder to keep the ones they have. That is when counteroffers appear.
The cost of getting it wrong is also rising. From 1 January 2027, staff can claim unfair dismissal after six months in a job instead of two years. The cap on compensation will also be removed (Acas). This is general information, not legal advice. Acas has the full detail.
Where the risk sits with us
At Pineapple Careers, Ashley screens and interviews candidates herself and presents a shortlist of three to five people. The fee is only payable when your new starter actually begins. If they leave within 12 weeks, a rebate applies. So the risk of a no-show or an early exit is not yours alone.
If you have a role to fill and want a hire who turns up and stays, tell Ashley about it here.